Lotto eludes me - again ...

[grevillea]

Having managed 5 numbers twice in many years of playing lotto, I like to think of what could have been. One of my strategies is to limit my choices to a specific range, usually 1-30 or somesuch. It brings your odds down from one in 8 million to one in 7.5 million

The disappointing thing about this approach is that the numbers are usually spread out across a much broader spectrum between 1 and 45. Not so last night here in NSW:

Wed 05/01/2011 2997 3 10 11 14 17 28 12 43

Anyone willing to generate a hundred or so games based on numbers between 1 and 17 would have had a very good chance of nailing 4, 5 or (be still my beating heart) 5 and a supplementary. Normally, the payout for 2nd division is quite low when the numbers correspond to birth dates, but there were only 8 winners last night - 7.5K wont get you a mansion next to Marcus at Peppermint Grove, but it will get you some very nice audio.

I know - woulda, shouda, coulda - but I didnt. Fresh from a string of disappointing results, I settled for a quickpick.

Grev, problem gambler

[dingostolemyipod]

One of my strategies is to limit my choices to a specific range, usually 1-30 or somesuch. It brings your odds down from one in 8 million to one in 7.5 million

I like your thinking, it's just a shame the maths don't back you up for that.

EDIT: or then again, I'm assuming that the lotto machines are perfectly random, which in reality probably isn't the case.

[grevillea]

Who knows - the people who base their theories on past outcomes claim that no two balls are *exactly* alike and that you can, supposedly, narrow your choices based on the most common balls - as someone who has a database and tracks every draw, I know just how misleading this assumption is.

My initial comment re narrowing my odds isnt based on reality (surprising, I know..), simply on the fact that its easier to make 6 random choices from 30 possibles : the hard part is waiting for the numbers to fall within that range, then hoping that your fiendishly clever choices bear some resemblance to the numbers that came out of the barrel. You could just as easily have bought a 4 game quickpick and had the same result - the odds are still 8 million to one against us, but at least I can go to bed knowing I have a 'strategy'.

The 5 number thing was particularly annoying. Twice in the same week, and very little since. Some might take that as a sign, but we problem gamblers cant read the signs.

[dingostolemyipod]

Well when the balls finally fall into your 1-30 picking range your odds are gonna be awesome.

That would be 30 choose 6 - i thought i'd punch it into google to see if it's calculator would recognise it, and i was pleasantly surprised that it did.

It's just a pity that the chances of landing all balls only in the first 30 numbers is so low, about 7% google this: (30! / 24!) / (45! / 39!).

google is awesome!

[grevillea]

dingo, I'm confused - does this make us Lotto tragics or Maths geeks ? I've run out of fingers and toes.

[dingostolemyipod]

You're the lotto tragic, I'm the geek.

[ihasmario]

I want to know how they pick what colour balls get which colour on standard lotto.

I've never played lotto. If I ever do, I'll probably win. I want to avoid that at all costs.

[Drubbing]

Lotto is a mug's game. If I had my way, I'd take the $20 a week we spent on it and put it to some use where I'd actually see a return on it.

Like the Dogs. Great odds and stupidly easy to pick winners. Seriously.

[Beefy]

Like the Dogs. Great odds and stupidly easy to pick winners. Seriously.

Yeah, but then you'd be one of those people who bet on the dogs.

I spent years working at the trots at Gloucester Park. I saw the meanest, nastiest, smelliest people I had ever seen. Cockroaches (both literal and figurative) crawling from every crevice and the kind of filth (again, both literal and figurative) you cannot imagine. Yet both times I have been to a dog tracing track, it was far, far worse.

[Drubbing]

Like the Dogs. Great odds and stupidly easy to pick winners. Seriously.

Yeah, but then you'd be one of those people who bet on the dogs.

I spent years working at the trots at Gloucester Park. I saw the meanest, nastiest, smelliest people I had ever seen. Cockroaches (both literal and figurative) crawling from every crevice and the kind of filth (again, both literal and figurative) you cannot imagine. Yet both times I have been to a dog tracing track, it was far, far worse.

I wouldn't mix with riff raff. There's the TAB. It's even online now.

[ihasmario]

TAB is for the riff raff.

Real men play the stocks - they're like dogs.... sort of.

[riffraff]

I wouldn't mix with riff raff. There's the TAB. It's even online now.

why?

[Drubbing]

I wouldn't mix with riff raff. There's the TAB. It's even online now.

why?

Why not? It's a less likely way of flushing money down the pan.

[ihasmario]

[grevillea]

drubbing and riffraff
sitting in a tree
k-i-s-s-i-n-g